Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.051608 0.059057 0.067266 0.076995 0.088224 0.100795 0.115957
2024-12-15 0.040386 0.050554 0.062861 0.078903 0.099339 0.124598 0.158343
2024-12-22 0.033264 0.044238 0.058393 0.078087 0.104940 0.140504 0.191555
2024-12-29 0.029599 0.041358 0.057335 0.080792 0.114633 0.162109 0.234509
2025-01-05 0.025196 0.036683 0.052981 0.078012 0.115885 0.171677 0.261265
2025-01-12 0.022131 0.033418 0.050062 0.076677 0.118707 0.183415 0.292307
2025-01-19 0.019221 0.029977 0.046391 0.073600 0.118244 0.189759 0.315316
2025-01-26 0.018117 0.029157 0.046580 0.076496 0.127467 0.212379 0.367863
2025-02-02 0.017137 0.028402 0.046740 0.079284 0.136734 0.236042 0.425287
2025-02-09 0.016262 0.027703 0.046883 0.081998 0.146099 0.260871 0.488080
2025-02-16 0.014946 0.026101 0.045306 0.081475 0.149551 0.275421 0.533473
2025-02-23 0.013946 0.024944 0.044368 0.081962 0.154848 0.293886 0.588835
2025-03-02 0.012897 0.023619 0.043039 0.081663 0.158787 0.310574 0.643792
2025-03-09 0.012280 0.023032 0.043014 0.083864 0.167924 0.338728 0.727120
2025-03-16 0.011346 0.021745 0.041525 0.082991 0.170693 0.354184 0.785135
2025-03-23 0.010937 0.021433 0.041882 0.085875 0.181608 0.388077 0.889631
2025-03-30 0.009939 0.019850 0.039558 0.082910 0.179582 0.393601 0.928880
2025-04-06 0.009199 0.018720 0.038040 0.081487 0.180753 0.406329 0.987227
2025-04-13 0.008356 0.017299 0.035784 0.078206 0.177320 0.408041 1.018465
2025-04-20 0.008157 0.017220 0.036355 0.081294 0.189016 0.446808 1.150432
2025-04-27 0.007955 0.017115 0.036854 0.084268 0.200797 0.487311 1.293592
2025-05-04 0.007755 0.016992 0.037301 0.087162 0.212735 0.529771 1.449150
2025-05-11 0.007310 0.016280 0.036352 0.086604 0.215948 0.550331 1.546500